elastic / cloudbeat / 29008956499
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fix: make minor version bump fully idempotent on retrigger (#7276)

## Summary

When Nina retriggered [unified-release-centralized-version-bump
#35](https://buildkite.com/elastic/unified-release-centralized-version-bump/builds/35)
yesterday after our `9.5.0` minor bump had already succeeded,
[cloudbeat-version-bump
#36](https://buildkite.com/elastic/cloudbeat-version-bump/builds/36)
re-ran `bump-minor.sh` with the same env vars (`WORKFLOW=minor
BRANCH=9.5 NEW_VERSION=9.5.0`). By then `main` was at `9.6.0` (from
merged #7268), and the `sed` inside `update_version_beat`
unconditionally rewrote `version.go` back to `9.5.0`, opening the
now-closed **#7275** — a PR proposing to downgrade `main` (verified:
`defaultBeatVersion` and 4 ARM `defaultValue` fields all flipped `9.6.0`
-> `9.5.0`).

The existing `no_new_commits` guard couldn't tell the difference between
"advance forward" and "regress backward" — it only asks "did anything
change vs main?" — so the regression commits passed the check and got
pushed.

This PR closes that gap and a related one in `post-minor-merge.sh`, with
defense in depth so no future retrigger can produce a bad PR or a
wrong-content release branch.

## Fix — three layers

### 1. Top-level guard in
[`bump-minor.sh`](/Users/gsarantid/Elastic/cloudbeat/.buildkite/scripts/release/bump-minor.sh)

If `main` is already at `next_minor_version(NEW_VERSION)` (e.g. `main` =
`9.6.0` while `NEW_VERSION` = `9.5.0`), the entire minor bump has
completed. Exit `0` before touching any files.

### 2. Hardened shared helpers in
[`common.sh`](/Users/gsarantid/Elastic/cloudbeat/.buildkite/scripts/release/common.sh)

New `is_downgrade()` helper using `sort -V` (so `9.10.0 > 9.9.0` sorts
correctly). `update_version_beat` and `update_arm_templates` now call it
before writing: if the current value is already `>=` the target, they
refuse and log a clear message. Belt-and-suspenders — even if a future
caller forgets the top-level guard, no downgrade can esca... (continued)

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